Affected by the National Development and Reform Commissions carbon peak carbon neutrality work symposium and the rumors of national blast furnace production restrictions, steel futures prices rose sharply on June 10, and the continuous rebound in recent days has made up for Mondays decline.
Rebar rose nearly 3%, hot coils Rose more than 2%. However, under the pressure of the moving average and the inflection point of steel inventory, the overall market continued to rise and the power was obviously weakened. The fluctuations stopped in the afternoon, the volatility increased, and the closing fell back.
At present, the steel market is dominated by the impact of macro policies and news. At the same time, steel prices have transitioned smoothly after the sharp rise and fall. During the off-peak season, there is a lack of firm rebound strength. A little disturbance has caused the market to fall into shock. In addition, high-level officials play their role in regulating the market for bulk commodities, and on the other hand, there is still a bottom line in price tolerance, which leads to a slight "swing" in the implementation of the policy. In the short term, the continuous upward breakthrough of steel prices is limited. We do not rule out that individual varieties will gradually weaken. However, because the bottom cost support is still in place, the overall market will fluctuate or be relatively mild before the holiday. Prices will fluctuate weakly.
This week, steel futures prices fell first and then rose, driving speculative demand to rebound, and downstream terminal purchases were also released. In the second half of the week, steel prices stopped falling and rebounded. At present, whether it is the rainy season in the south, the high temperature in the north or the epidemic in South China, the demand is suppressed, and steel demand is undoubtedly weakening. In the complex environment of "high costs, unstable demand, and volatile market sentiment", the futures market continues to lead the spot market, steel prices fluctuate repeatedly, and policy influences also appear from time to time, and the whole is in a range of fluctuations. There may be a short-term rebound in steel prices, but it may be difficult to keep rising in June.
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